FROM SCRATCH NEWSWIRE

SCAVENGING THE INTERNET

Archive for the ‘ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD)’ Category

TROUBLE WITH DEPOSIT GUARANTEES – THE STATE SHOULD PROTECT LIFE SAVINGS ONLY IN A CRISIS (Australia)

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on January 8, 2009

January 07, 2009

The Australian

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE AUSTRALIAN’

CLICK HERE FOR THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE AUSTRALIAN’

Posted in AUSTRALIA, BANKING SYSTEMS, CENTRAL BANKS, CRIMINAL ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SCAMS, FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRIES, FRAUD, INTERNATIONAL, ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD), PUBLIC SECTOR AND STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES, RECESSION, REGULATIONS AND BUSINESS TRANSPARENCY, RESTRUCTURING OF PRIVATE COMPANIES, STOCK MARKETS, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS | Leave a Comment »

BRASIL AUMENTA SUBSÍDIOS PARA A AGRICULTURA (Brazil)

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 21, 2008

19 de dezembro de 2008 – 14:45h

Agrolink

PUBLISHED BY ‘SÓ NOTÍCIAS’ (MT – Brazil)

CLICK HERE FOR THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE

PUBLISHED BY ‘SÓ NOTÍCIAS’ (MT – Brazil)

Posted in AGRICULTURA, AGRICULTURE, BRASIL, COMMODITIES MARKET, ECONOMIA - BRASIL, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EXPANSÃO AGRÍCOLA, EXPANSÃO ECONÔMICA, FARMING SUBSIDIES, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FLUXO DE CAPITAIS, INTERNATIONAL, MINISTÉRIO DA AGRICULTURA, PECUÁRIA E ABASTECIMENTO, O PODER EXECUTIVO FEDERAL, ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD), RECESSION, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION | Leave a Comment »

OECD ADVISES CAUTION (Slovakia)

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 11, 2008

8 Dec 2008

by Beata Balogová

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE SLOVACK SPECTADOR’

AMONG the members of a club comprising the world’s most developed economies, many are staring down the wrong end of a protracted recession, the likes of which they have not experienced since the early 1980s.

Over the next two years, 8 million people could join the ranks of the unemployed in the member states of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); at the same time, inflation is abating in all of them and some even face the risk of mild deflation, according to the OECD in its latest economic forecast.

Though Slovakia is forecast to remain the OECD’s top performer for the next two years, the organisation expects economic activity to decelerate significantly in 2009, before picking up in the following years.

“In particular, investment spending and trade growth are likely to be adversely affected by the effects of the financial crisis,” said the OECD in its economic outlook, which is published twice a year, analysing major trends and the economic policies required to foster high sustainable growth.

According to the OECD, Slovak growth is expected to return to close to its potential rate towards 2010. Inflation rates should decline from their currently high levels, but stay above euro-area levels, the organisation said. The OECD predicts economic growth in Slovakia to be 4.0 percent at most next year.

“Among the recently published prognoses, the OECD’s is the most pessimistic for Slovakia,” Zuzana Holeščáková, an analyst with Poštová Banka, told The Slovak Spectator. “The autumn estimate of the European Commission stood at 4.9 percent and the recently revised prediction of the Finance Ministry stands at 4.6 percent.”

Radovan Ďurana of the Institute of Economic and Social Studies (INESS), a think tank, said that Slovakia owes its ability to keep economic growth at the highest level among OECD members to foreign investments encouraged by the reforms adopted by the previous government.

“Currently there are no measures taken which would fundamentally influence the interest of investors in increasing their production in Slovakia,” Ďurana told The Slovak Spectator.

The relatively high economic growth should be still driven by domestic production; specifically household consumption, but also by the public administration and thanks to the creation of gross fixed capital, according to Holeščáková.

However, analysts also say that the slower growth of GDP will be reflected in slower growth in domestic consumption.

“The slowdown in economic growth due to the financial crisis should contribute to growing unemployment, a slower growth of salaries and a slowdown in inflation,” senior analyst with the VÚB bank Martin Lenko told The Slovak Spectator.

Holeščáková agrees that unemployment will now fall more slowly in Slovakia, which currently has one of the highest unemployment rates in the European Union.

In terms of foreign trade, the eurozone is Slovakia’s most significant market, but like other world economies it faces a slowdown in consumption and this fact will be reflected in the falling demand by foreign countries for Slovak products and services, which will mean a drop in exports, Holeščáková explained.

“Declining consumption might result in a slowdown of production and related limitations or even the closure of some operations,” Holeščáková said. “However, Slovakia should remain an attractive destination for foreign investors due to its lower costs, including cheaper labour.”

The OECD has also appealed to its member governments to support their economies with stimuli. As for which kind of stimuli these should be in Slovakia, Ďurana listed the “reduction of costs by which the government burdens the creation of jobs by businesses, and maintaining the volume of production”.

According to Ďurana, it should not be a policy of financial stimuli for selected sectors and companies but a flat reduction of the costs which the government itself has helped to cause.

“I am an advocate of revision of tax and payroll tax policies, which in a period of economic slowdown is one of the basic tools of the state to support investment and consumption, since it has a flat rather than just a selective impact,” Lenko told The Slovak Spectator.

Ďurana said that in Slovakia’s case the reduction of the tax and payroll tax burden and reduction of the administrative and regulatory burden would help.

According to Holeščáková, Slovakia should not be affected by the crisis to the same extent as some EU or other developed economies, while the Slovak government does not yet have to support the economy with different stimuli.

The OECD also asked member governments to be more watchful, which is very important in Holeščáková’s view.

“Mainly in the area of fiscal stimuli and due to excessive spending in the economy the public finance deficits could deepen but also the state debts could swell, which in some circumstances might result in Slovakia not fulfilling the [eurozone] stability pact,” Holeščáková said.

Handling the adoption of the euro, which is scheduled for January 1, 2009, will determine policy priorities.

Although the expected slowdown will dampen the danger of a boom-bust cycle induced by low real interest rates, fiscal policy should be used cautiously, the OECD said.

As for the role the euro will play next year in defining the government’s economic policies, Lenko said that the loss of the monetary lever, which in the past took the form of a strengthening Slovak crown, would create greater pressure to follow considerate fiscal policies, which should be targeted on achieving sustainable long-term development of the economy.

“Whether it happens this way all depends on the government,” Lenko said.

Ďurana said that the government should consider the monetary policy of the European Central Bank next year to be beyond its reach and it will be left with only fiscal policies to fight eventual inflationary pressures.

“Thanks to the euro, the Slovak currency, compared to the currencies of neighbouring countries, has significantly strengthened, which has increased wage expenses for foreign investors in Slovakia,” Ďurana said. “The government should compensate for this negative effect by cutting taxes and payroll taxes.”

CLICK HERE FOR THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE SLOVACK SPECTADOR’

Posted in CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCE, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EURO, EUROPE, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL, NATIONAL WORK FORCES, ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD), RECESSION, SLOVAKIA, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, THE WORK MARKET, THE WORKERS | Leave a Comment »

US FACES DEEP PROBLEMS, OECD SAYS

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 9, 2008

December 08, 2008 Monday – Zilhaj 9, 1429

by Steve Schifferes – Economics reporter, BBC News

PUBLISHED BY ‘BBC NEWS’ (UK)

The US economy is still facing “sharp downside risks” to growth, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The Paris-based organisation warns that the credit squeeze has been spreading to other forms of lending, and other financial firms could become insolvent.

It says that another fiscal stimulus could be needed if things get worse.

But it warns that longer term problems, including health care reform and the US budget deficit, must be tackled.

Obama’s challenge

The OECD paints a grim picture of the challenges facing the incoming Obama administration, which takes office on 20 January.

It says that “the US economy is going through an exceptionally difficult period” and despite major policy interventions, it is likely that “activity will get worse before it gets better”.

The OECD suggests that the weakness will continue well into 2010.

It also warns that “house prices appear to have further to fall, and foreclosures are widely expected to rise.”

The decline in household wealth of about 20%, due to falls in the stock and housing markets, is likely to affect spending and household consumption.

The OECD broadly endorses the need for a further stimulus plan, saying that “macroeconomic policy should stand ready to provide a renewed stimulus”.

But it warns that, “given the underlying fiscal situation, the package should aim to be strictly temporary, timely and targeted” – an approach that appears to differ from the plan for big infrastructure projects that President-elect Obama has talked about.

And it adds that in the longer term, “the ageing of the population and other trends put the Federal budget on an unsustainable course” and says that increased tax revenue and controls on spending will be needed.

Financial disruption

The OECD says that “resolving the financial crisis could be a long drawn-out process”, which could require substantial government spending just as in previous banking crises.

It says that the “full effects of the forceful easing of monetary policy will only be felt after financial market conditions normalise”.

So it argues that big rate cuts by the US central bank, the Fed, “appear to be roughly appropriate in light of the adverse effect on real activity” of the credit squeeze, and says that “monetary policy should remain highly accommodative for quite some time to support the economy and the financial system”.

However, it warns that in the long run, the regulatory system needs to be fundamentally reformed, or else the rescue of troubled financial institutions “could inadvertently serve to encourage imprudent behaviour” in the future.

“A major overhaul of regulatory and supervisory policy is necessary to remedy the deficiencies in oversight that the crisis revealed,” the report says.

It also calls for reform of the supervision of mortgage brokers, underwriters and credit agencies to protect borrowers and investors.

And it says, more controversially, that in the long-term “it would be preferable to leave the securitisation of mortgages to the private sector,” eliminating or reducing the role of the big government-sponsored agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were effectively nationalised by the government earlier this year.

Health care reform

The OECD report has a special chapter highlighting the problems of the US health care system, which was much debated during the recent election campaign.

It points out that, despite spending 15% of GDP, “the health status of the US population does not appear to fare well by international comparison”.

The OECD endorses the goal of the Obama administration in making progress towards providing health care insurance for all Americans.

However, it appears to give support to the plan proposed by his electoral rival, John McCain, to replace tax subsidies to employers with subsidies to individuals to choose their own health plans that would not be tied to their jobs.

It says the current system is regressive and encourages people to buy expensive plans, as well as reducing job mobility.

But it also suggests that reforms suggested by president-elect Obama, such as a requirement to have health insurance, and regulating insurance companies more tightly so they must accept all applicants, “are likely to be necessary to expand coverage substantially”.

And it warns that the government will have to take tough measures to control costs in state-run Medicare system of health insurance for older people.

CLICK HERE FOR THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE

PUBLISHED BY ‘BBC NEWS’ (UK)

Posted in BANKING SYSTEM - USA, BANKRUPTCIES - USA, BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA -(DEC. 2008/JAN. 2009), CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCE, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ECONOMY - USA, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, HEALTH SAFETY, HOUSING CRISIS - USA, MACROECONOMY, NATIONAL WORK FORCES, ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD), RECESSION, REGULATIONS AND BUSINESS TRANSPARENCY, STOCK MARKETS, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, THE LAST DAYS OF GEORGE WALKER BUSH - 2008/Jan. 2009, THE WORK MARKET, THE WORKERS, USA | Leave a Comment »

OCDE ESPERA RECESSÃO PARA EUA E EUROPA EM 2009

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on November 25, 2008

Plantão – Publicada em 25/11/2008 às 13h01m

por Juliana Cardoso – Valor Online

SÃO PAULO – A Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE) espera recessão em vários países no próximo ano, como Estados Unidos e Japão. Acredita que a desaceleração econômica deverá ser mais severa em economias mais vulneráveis a crises financeiras ou às fortes quedas de preços das casas, como Hungria, Islândia, Irlanda, Luxemburgo, Turquia e Reino Unido. Também avalia que o desaquecimento global afetará as principais economias emergentes, como Brasil, China, Rússia e Índia, mas o efeito será mais limitado.

Nos Estados Unidos, conforme o relatório da OCDE, o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) deve declinar 0,9% em 2009 antes de apresentar crescimento de 1,6% em 2010. Na zona do euro, o PIB deve ter contração de 0,6% no próximo calendário e expandir-se 1,2% um ano depois. A economia japonesa declinará 0,1% em 2009, mas deverá registrar avanço de 0,6% em 2010.

No levantamento Perspectivas Econômicas, a organização prevê que o números de desempregados nos países pertencentes à OCDE deve crescer em cerca de 8 milhões de pessoas nos próximos dois anos uma vez que a recessão mais séria desde o início dos anos de 1980 afeta a atividade econômica.

O contingente de desempregados pode alcançar 42 milhões de pessoas em 2010 em comparação aos 34 milhões registrados atualmente. A atividade econômica nos integrantes da OCDE deve ceder 0,4% em média em 2009 antes de crescer 1,5% no ano seguinte.

“As incertezas envolvendo as projeções são excepcionalmente altas”, declarou o economista-chefe da OCDE, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. “Muito depende de de como ocorrerá a superação da crise financeira, o principal motor da desaceleração”, acrescentou.

CLICK HERE FOR THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE

PUBLISHED BY ‘PORTAL G1’ (Brasil)

Posted in BANKING SYSTEMS, BRASIL, CHINA, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, HUNGARY, ICELAND, INDIA, INTERNATIONAL, IRELAND, JAPAN, LUXEMBOURG, ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD), RECESSION, RUSSIA, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, THE WORK MARKET, TURKEY, UNITED KINGDOM, USA | Leave a Comment »