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Archive for the ‘DEFLATION’ Category

SPECTRE OF DEFLATION COULD BRING 1960s INTEREST RATE

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on January 20, 2009

4:00AM Tuesday Jan 20, 2009

by Stephen Johnson – AAP

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD’

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD’

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Posted in AUSTRALIA, BANKING SYSTEMS, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCE, COMMODITIES MARKET, DEFLATION, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, INDUSTRIES, INTERNATIONAL, MACROECONOMY, NEW ZEALAND, RECESSION, REGULATIONS AND BUSINESS TRANSPARENCY, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS | Leave a Comment »

DEFLATION REARS ITS UGLY HEAD WORLDWIDE

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on January 19, 2009

January 20, 2009

by Michael Sainsbury – The Australian

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE AUSTRALIAN’

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE AUSTRALIAN’

Posted in BANKING SYSTEMS, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCE, COMMODITIES MARKET, DEFLATION, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, INDUSTRIES, INTERNATIONAL, MACROECONOMY, RECESSION | Leave a Comment »

IGP-M – PRIMEIRA PRÉVIA APRESENTA DEFLAÇÃO DE 0,31% (Brazil)

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on January 14, 2009

[ 13/01/2009 ]

por Alessandra Saraiva

PUBLISHED BY ‘JORNAL CRUZEIRO DO SUL’

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PUBLISHED BY ‘JORNAL CRUZEIRO DO SUL’

Posted in ÍNDICE GERAL DE PREÇOS - MERCADO (IGP-M), ÍNDICES ECONÔMICOS - BRASIL, BRASIL, COMÉRCIO - BRASIL, COMMERCE, COMMODITIES MARKET, DEFLATION, ECONOMIA - BRASIL, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EXPANSÃO AGRÍCOLA, EXPANSÃO ECONÔMICA, EXPANSÃO INDUSTRIAL, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FLUXO DE CAPITAIS, INDÚSTRIAS, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, INDUSTRIES, INTERNATIONAL, RECESSION | Leave a Comment »

AIR INDIA CUTS DOMESTIC FARES BY UP TO 82%

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 31, 2008

31 Dec 2008, 05:35 hrs IST

ET Bureau

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE ECONOMIC TIMES’ (India)

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE ECONOMIC TIMES’ (India)

Posted in AIR TRANSPORT INDUSTRY, DEFLATION, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, INDIA, INDUSTRIES, INTERNATIONAL, RECESSION, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS | Leave a Comment »

U.S. BUSINESS JUST SHUTTING DOWN – EXPERT

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 15, 2008

4:00AM Monday Dec 15, 2008

Associated Press

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD’

WASHINGTON – Signs that the US recession will be long and severe mounted with a fresh round of bad economic news, including plunging sales from manufacturers to stores and falling prices that raise fears of dangerous deflation.

The widening economic troubles did put a lid on inflation. But they raised concerns about the opposite threat – the potential for a bout of deflation that could drag down incomes, clobber home prices even more and shrink corporate profits.

“Everything is going wrong in the fourth quarter,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “We have collapses in consumer spending, housing and now investment. Business is just shutting down.”

The new batch of data Friday showed retail sales fell by 1.8 per cent in November, marking a record fifth straight monthly decline.

The weakness was led by another sharp drop in auto sales – the worst sales month for automakers in 26 years. After an auto bailout collapsed in Congress on Thursday night, the White House offered a partial reprieve on Friday for the Detroit Three, pledging temporary help to avoid a “disorderly bankruptcy” for one or more of them.

Treasury Department officials were discussing with the automakers what form that support would take. That gave Wall Street a lift, with the Dow Jones industrials rising about 65 points to close just under 8630.

The stock market has shown signs of settling down the past two weeks. While there’s still volatility, the terrifying lurches of several hundred points at a time have become rarer.

The Dow has closed between 8000 and 9000 for 15 trading sessions in a row.

And on two of the last three days, it has moved only double digits for the day, the first time that has happened since Lehman Brothers went bust in mid-September.

A second report from the Commerce Department showed that all stages of production – manufacturing, wholesale and retail – suffered a record drop in sales in October, the month the financial crisis hit with force.

Businesses trimmed their total inventories by the biggest amount in five years, which probably means more cuts in production and layoffs in the months ahead.

And a Labour Department report showed wholesale prices dropped 2.2 per cent in November, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. They had fallen 2.8 per cent in October, a record.

Wholesale prices have not fallen for such an extended stretch since the period between October 2001 and January 2002, when the country was struggling to emerge from the last recession.

The severity of the current recession, already the longest in a quarter-century, was raising the risk of a period of deflation for the first time in the United States since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

While falling prices for fuel and other products mean people have more to spend on other items, a prolonged stretch of price declines can escalate into falling wages as businesses are forced to slash production costs to compete for sales.

Economists say the threat of deflation is remote but the risks are increasing as the downturn worsens, especially with Wall Street in upheaval and businesses and people having trouble getting loans.

“People are just scared at the moment with the financial markets locked up,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York.

Wyss and other economists expect the Federal Reserve not only to cut rates sharply at the conclusion of its two-day meeting Tuesday, but also to signal other novel approaches it may employ to get credit into the system.

The Fed’s target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, is already at 1 per cent, tying the lowest level of the past 50 years.

The 1.8 per cent fall in retail sales in November was concentrated in bad results for automakers and a plunge in sales at petrol stations because of cheaper petrol.

Other businesses, such as department stores, posted modest sales increases.

But economists caution against reading too much into those gains, contending that the weak economy and continued layoffs will likely make this the weakest holiday shopping season for stores since the 1981-82 recession.

All the economy’s woes are expected to show up in a steep drop in overall activity during the current October-December quarter.

Some economists said the gross domestic product could fall by 5 per cent or more in the fourth quarter and keep falling next year.

Wyss said he expects the recession to end in June.

That would mean it had lasted for 18 months, which would be the longest downturn since World War II.

The current record is 16 months. Both the 1981-82 recession and the 1973-75 slump lasted that long.

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD’

Posted in AGRICULTURE, BANKING SYSTEM - USA, BANKRUPTCIES - USA, COMMERCE, COMMODITIES MARKET, CONSUMERS AND PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS, DEFLATION, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ECONOMY - USA, FARMING SUBSIDIES, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FOREIGN POLICIES - USA, FOREIGN WORK FORCE - LEGAL, GRAINS, HOUSING CRISIS - USA, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION - USA, INDUSTRIES - USA, MACROECONOMY, NATIONAL WORK FORCES, PETROL, RECESSION, REGULATIONS AND BUSINESS TRANSPARENCY, STOCK MARKETS, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, THE LAST DAYS OF GEORGE WALKER BUSH - 2008/Jan. 2009, THE WORK MARKET, THE WORKERS, USA | Leave a Comment »

NOW, DEFLATION FEAR GRIPS US ECONOMY

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on November 2, 2008

2 Nov 2008, 0049 hrs IST

by Peter S Goodman,NYT News Service

As dozens of countries slip deeper into financial distress, a new threat may be gathering force within Ecofin finance ministers and Ecofin governors of central banks pose for the family picture of the informal meeting of the ministers in charge of economy and finance ECOFIN, in Nice, southeastern France, Friday, Sept. 12, 2008 the American economy – the prospect that goods will pile up waiting for buyers and prices will fall, suffocating fresh investment and worsening joblessness for months or even years.

The word for this is deflation, or declining prices, a term that gives economists chills.

Deflation accompanied the Depression of the 1930s. Persistently falling prices also were at the heart of Japan’s so-called lost decade after the catastrophic collapse of its real estate bubble at the end of the 1980s – a period in which some experts now find parallels to the American predicament. “That certainly is the snapshot of the risk I see,” said Robert J Barbera, chief economist at the research and trading firm ITG. “It is the crisis we face.”

With economies around the globe weakening, demand for oil, copper, grains and other commodities has diminished, bringing down prices of these raw materials. But prices have yet to decline noticeably for most goods and services, with one conspicuous exception – houses. Still, reduced demand is beginning to soften prices for a few products, like furniture and bedding, which are down slightly since the beginning of 2007, according to data. Prices are also falling for some appliances, tools and hardware.

Only a few months ago, American policy makers were worried about the reverse problem – rising prices, or inflation – as then-soaring costs for oil and food filtered through the economy. In July, average prices were 5.6% higher than a year earlier – the fastest pace of inflation since 1991. But by the end of September, annual inflation had dipped to 4.9% and was widely expected to go lower.

The new worry is that in the worst case, the end of inflation may be the beginning of something malevolent: a long, slow retrenchment in which consumers and businesses worldwide lose the wherewithal to buy, sending prices down for many goods. Though still considered unlikely, that would prompt businesses to slow production and accelerate layoffs, taking more paychecks out of the economy and further weakening demand.

The danger of this is the difficulty of a cure. Policy makers can generally choke off inflation by raising interest rates, dampening economic activity and reducing demand for goods. But as Japan discovered, an economy may remain ensnared by deflation for many years, even when interest rates are dropped to zero: falling prices make companies reluctant to invest even when credit is free.

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PUBLISHED BY ‘TIMES OF INDIA’

Posted in BANKING SYSTEM - USA, BANKING SYSTEMS, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCE, COMMODITIES MARKET, DEFLATION, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, JAPAN, USA | Leave a Comment »