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DOLLAR EXTENDS LOSSES VERSUS EURO AFTER CPI DATA (USA)

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on January 17, 2009

Friday, January 16, 2009

Reporting by Wanfeng Zhou and Nick Olivari – Editing by Theodore d’Afflisio – Reuters

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE GUARDIAN’ (UK)

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE GUARDIAN’ (UK)

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Posted in BANKING SYSTEM - USA, BANKING SYSTEMS, BANKRUPTCIES - USA, CENTRAL BANKS, CURRENCIES, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ECONOMY - USA, EURO, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION - USA, INDUSTRIES - USA, INTERNATIONAL, RECESSION, THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, THE LAST DAYS OF GEORGE WALKER BUSH - 2008/Jan. 2009, USA | Leave a Comment »

THE MARKET HAS SPOKEN: LONG LIVE THE EURO – DETRACTORS OF THE NEW CURRENCY HAVE BEEN PROVED WRONG – WE WOULD BE MUCH BETTER OFF IF WE WERE PART OF THE EUROZONE

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on January 2, 2009

January 1, 2009

by Oliver Kamm – The Times

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE TIMES’ (UK)

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE TIMES’ (UK)

Posted in BANKING SYSTEMS, COMMERCE, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EURO, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FOREIGN POLICIES, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, INDUSTRIES, INTERNATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, MACROECONOMY, RECESSION, REGULATIONS AND BUSINESS TRANSPARENCY, THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, THE WORK MARKET | Leave a Comment »

SLOVAKIA 16TH COUNTRY TO ADOPT EURO

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on January 2, 2009

Thursday January 1, 2009

Associated Press-Wire

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE STAR’ (Malaysia)

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE STAR’ (Malaysia)

Posted in BANKING SYSTEMS, COMMERCE, CURRENCIES, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EURO, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FOREIGN POLICIES, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, INDUSTRIES, INTERNATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, MACROECONOMY, RECESSION, REGULATIONS AND BUSINESS TRANSPARENCY, SLOVAKIA, THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, THE WORK MARKET | Leave a Comment »

EURO UP AGAINST DOLLAR, BUT SET FOR FULL-YEAR FALL – EURO GAINS BUT SET FOR FIRST YEARLY DROP SINCE 2005 – DOLLAR SEEN ON SHAKY FOOTING HEADING INTO 2009 – POUND DOWN 27 PCT VS DLR, WORST SINCE GOLD STANDARD ENDED

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 31, 2008

Wednesday December 31 2008

Reuters

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE GUARDIAN’ (USA)

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE GUARDIAN’ (USA)

Posted in AUSTRALIA, BANKING SYSTEM - USA, BANKRUPTCIES - USA, CURRENCIES, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ECONOMY - USA, EURO, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, GOLD, HOUSING CRISIS - USA, INTERNATIONAL, RECESSION, THE LAST DAYS OF GEORGE WALKER BUSH - 2008/Jan. 2009, USA | Leave a Comment »

EURO CURRENCY TURNS 10; SEEN FULFILLING PROMISE – TEN YEARS AGO, EUROPE LAUNCHED ITS GRAND EXPERIMENT WITH A SHARED CURRENCY – AND WATCHED IT PLUNGE IN VALUE BEFORE RECOVERING

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 28, 2008

Sunday, December 28, 2008 at 11:35 AM

by Matt Moore and George Frey – Associated Press Business Writers

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE SEATTLE TIMES’ (USA)

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE SEATTLE TIMES’ (USA)

Posted in AUSTRIA, BANKING SYSTEMS, BELGIUM, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCE, CURRENCIES, CYPRUS, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EURO, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FOREIGN POLICIES, FRANCE, GERMANY, GREECE, INTERNATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, LUXEMBOURG, NETHERLANDS, PORTUGAL, RECESSION, SLOVAKIA, THE EUROPEAN UNION | Leave a Comment »

US DOLLAR LOWER VS EURO IN THIN TRADES

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 27, 2008

11:44:00 12/27/2008

Agence France-Presse

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE PHILIPPINE DAILY INQUIRER’ (Philippines)

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE PHILIPPINE DAILY INQUIRER’ (Philippines)

Posted in BANKING SYSTEM - USA, BANKRUPTCIES - USA, CURRENCIES, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ECONOMY - USA, EURO, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, HOUSING CRISIS - USA, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION - USA, INDUSTRIES - USA, INTERNATIONAL, NATIONAL DEBT - USA, POUND (Britain), RECESSION, THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE LAST DAYS OF GEORGE WALKER BUSH - 2008/Jan. 2009, TRADE DEFICIT - USA, UNITED KINGDOM, USA | Leave a Comment »

BANCO CENTRAL EUROPEU NÃO SEGUIRÁ JURO ZERO DOS EUA

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 23, 2008

22/12/2008

Jornal Cruzeiro do Sul

PUBLISHED BY ‘JORNAL CRUZEIRO DO SUL’ (Brazil)

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PUBLISHED BY ‘JORNAL CRUZEIRO DO SUL’ (Brazil)

Posted in BANKING SYSTEM - USA, CENTRAL BANKS, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ECONOMY - USA, EURO, EUROPE, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, INTERNATIONAL, RECESSION, THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE LAST DAYS OF GEORGE WALKER BUSH - 2008/Jan. 2009, USA | Leave a Comment »

EURO RISES ON DOLLAR TO $1.4075

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 17, 2008

Wed, Dec. 17, 2008

Associated Press

PUBLISHED BY ‘PHILLY.COM’ (USA)

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PUBLISHED BY ‘PHILLY.COM’ (USA)

Posted in CURRENCIES, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EURO, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, RECESSION | Leave a Comment »

DOLLAR LOWER, GOLD FALLS IN EUROPEAN AFTERNOON TRADING

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 16, 2008

December 15, 2008 – 11:10 AM

Associated Press

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE STAR TRIBUNE’ (USA)

LONDON – The U.S. dollar was lower against other major currencies in European trading Monday afternoon. Gold fell.

The euro traded at $1.3650, up from $1.3371 late Friday in New York.

Other dollar rates:

_ 90.67 Japanese yen, down from 91.12

_ 1.1599 Swiss francs, down from 1.1767

_ 1.2341 Canadian dollars, down from 1.2432

The British pound was quoted at $1.5303, up from $1.4969.

Gold traded in London at $826.00 per troy ounce, down from $826.50 late Friday.

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE STAR TRIBUNE’ (USA)

Posted in CANADA, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ECONOMY - USA, EURO, EUROPE, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, GOLD, INTERNATIONAL, POUND (Britain), RECESSION, SWITZERLAND, THE LAST DAYS OF GEORGE WALKER BUSH - 2008/Jan. 2009, UNITED KINGDOM, USA | Leave a Comment »

POUND SLUMPS TO RECORD LOW OF £1.11 AGAINST THE EURO AS CURRENCIES EDGE TOWARDS PARITY

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 16, 2008

4:55 PM on 15th December 2008

by Daily Mail Reporter

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE DAILY MAIL’ (UK)

The pound slumped to fresh lows against the euro today as the two currencies edged closer to parity.

At its low, one pound bought just 1.1102 euros – its latest in a series of record plunges against the single European currency in recent days.

Some holidaymakers travelling to Europe are reportedly already receiving less than one euro for their pound at bureaux de change, where commission is charged.

Sterling has dropped around 13 per cent against the euro in the past two months as the Bank of England has slashed interest rates in its attempt to stave off a deep and prolonged recession.

UK rates have dropped to 2 per cent, below those in the eurozone after a 1.5 per cent cut in November and a 1 per cent cut earlier this month, which has compounded the pound’s woes.

The weaker currency could provide a boost to UK exporters but the economic woes of major export markets such as the U.S. and Europe is hitting demand.

It is thought short-selling – where investors sell assets such as shares or currencies in the hope of buying them back later at a lower price and pocketing the difference – is also behind the pound’s slide.

The pound has also suffered big recent falls against the dollar but was holding steady at just under 1.50 U.S. dollars today.

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE DAILY MAIL’ (UK)

Posted in CURRENCIES, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ECONOMY - USA, EURO, EUROPE, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, INTERNATIONAL, POUND (Britain), RECESSION, THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE LAST DAYS OF GEORGE WALKER BUSH - 2008/Jan. 2009, UNITED KINGDOM, USA | Leave a Comment »

POUND CONTINUES FALL AGAINST EURO – Sterling has fallen to a fresh record low against the euro, while the value of the dollar has declined on talks about possible US rate cuts

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 15, 2008

Monday, 15 December 2008

PUBLISHED BY ‘BBC NEWS’ (UK)

The pound touched a record low of 1.1084 euros, which made one euro worth 90.22p, before recovering slightly to 1.1196 euros.

Meanwhile, the dollar fell as analysts predicted the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates on Tuesday.

The dollar fell to $1.3662 against the euro and $1.5294 against sterling.

POUND STERLING v EURO: 15 December 2008

Sterling has now hit record lows against the euro for six trading days in a row.

“Sterling remains under pressure on continued UK economic weakness,” said Geoff Kendrick at UBS.

Bail-out factor

The dollar declined on Monday on worries over the strength of the US economy, and on the uncertainty surrounding the bail-out of US carmakers.

“An interim bail-out plan for US automakers by the Bush administration is certainly weighing on the dollar, with many being sceptical as to how the industry can cope in the longer term and instead thinking that letting the market take its course would be a preferred route,” said currency analyst James Hughes at CMC Markets.

The euro was supported by suggestions from European Central Bank officials that interest rates in the eurozone might not fall too much further.

Interest rates are at 2.5% in the eurozone, compared with 2% in the UK and 1% in the US.

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PUBLISHED BY ‘BBC NEWS’ (UK)

Posted in BANKING SYSTEM - USA, BANKING SYSTEMS, CENTRAL BANKS, CURRENCIES, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ECONOMY - USA, EURO, EUROPE, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, INTERNATIONAL, POUND (Britain), RECESSION, THE LAST DAYS OF GEORGE WALKER BUSH - 2008/Jan. 2009, UNITED KINGDOM, USA | Leave a Comment »

OECD ADVISES CAUTION (Slovakia)

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on December 11, 2008

8 Dec 2008

by Beata Balogová

PUBLISHED BY ‘THE SLOVACK SPECTADOR’

AMONG the members of a club comprising the world’s most developed economies, many are staring down the wrong end of a protracted recession, the likes of which they have not experienced since the early 1980s.

Over the next two years, 8 million people could join the ranks of the unemployed in the member states of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); at the same time, inflation is abating in all of them and some even face the risk of mild deflation, according to the OECD in its latest economic forecast.

Though Slovakia is forecast to remain the OECD’s top performer for the next two years, the organisation expects economic activity to decelerate significantly in 2009, before picking up in the following years.

“In particular, investment spending and trade growth are likely to be adversely affected by the effects of the financial crisis,” said the OECD in its economic outlook, which is published twice a year, analysing major trends and the economic policies required to foster high sustainable growth.

According to the OECD, Slovak growth is expected to return to close to its potential rate towards 2010. Inflation rates should decline from their currently high levels, but stay above euro-area levels, the organisation said. The OECD predicts economic growth in Slovakia to be 4.0 percent at most next year.

“Among the recently published prognoses, the OECD’s is the most pessimistic for Slovakia,” Zuzana Holeščáková, an analyst with Poštová Banka, told The Slovak Spectator. “The autumn estimate of the European Commission stood at 4.9 percent and the recently revised prediction of the Finance Ministry stands at 4.6 percent.”

Radovan Ďurana of the Institute of Economic and Social Studies (INESS), a think tank, said that Slovakia owes its ability to keep economic growth at the highest level among OECD members to foreign investments encouraged by the reforms adopted by the previous government.

“Currently there are no measures taken which would fundamentally influence the interest of investors in increasing their production in Slovakia,” Ďurana told The Slovak Spectator.

The relatively high economic growth should be still driven by domestic production; specifically household consumption, but also by the public administration and thanks to the creation of gross fixed capital, according to Holeščáková.

However, analysts also say that the slower growth of GDP will be reflected in slower growth in domestic consumption.

“The slowdown in economic growth due to the financial crisis should contribute to growing unemployment, a slower growth of salaries and a slowdown in inflation,” senior analyst with the VÚB bank Martin Lenko told The Slovak Spectator.

Holeščáková agrees that unemployment will now fall more slowly in Slovakia, which currently has one of the highest unemployment rates in the European Union.

In terms of foreign trade, the eurozone is Slovakia’s most significant market, but like other world economies it faces a slowdown in consumption and this fact will be reflected in the falling demand by foreign countries for Slovak products and services, which will mean a drop in exports, Holeščáková explained.

“Declining consumption might result in a slowdown of production and related limitations or even the closure of some operations,” Holeščáková said. “However, Slovakia should remain an attractive destination for foreign investors due to its lower costs, including cheaper labour.”

The OECD has also appealed to its member governments to support their economies with stimuli. As for which kind of stimuli these should be in Slovakia, Ďurana listed the “reduction of costs by which the government burdens the creation of jobs by businesses, and maintaining the volume of production”.

According to Ďurana, it should not be a policy of financial stimuli for selected sectors and companies but a flat reduction of the costs which the government itself has helped to cause.

“I am an advocate of revision of tax and payroll tax policies, which in a period of economic slowdown is one of the basic tools of the state to support investment and consumption, since it has a flat rather than just a selective impact,” Lenko told The Slovak Spectator.

Ďurana said that in Slovakia’s case the reduction of the tax and payroll tax burden and reduction of the administrative and regulatory burden would help.

According to Holeščáková, Slovakia should not be affected by the crisis to the same extent as some EU or other developed economies, while the Slovak government does not yet have to support the economy with different stimuli.

The OECD also asked member governments to be more watchful, which is very important in Holeščáková’s view.

“Mainly in the area of fiscal stimuli and due to excessive spending in the economy the public finance deficits could deepen but also the state debts could swell, which in some circumstances might result in Slovakia not fulfilling the [eurozone] stability pact,” Holeščáková said.

Handling the adoption of the euro, which is scheduled for January 1, 2009, will determine policy priorities.

Although the expected slowdown will dampen the danger of a boom-bust cycle induced by low real interest rates, fiscal policy should be used cautiously, the OECD said.

As for the role the euro will play next year in defining the government’s economic policies, Lenko said that the loss of the monetary lever, which in the past took the form of a strengthening Slovak crown, would create greater pressure to follow considerate fiscal policies, which should be targeted on achieving sustainable long-term development of the economy.

“Whether it happens this way all depends on the government,” Lenko said.

Ďurana said that the government should consider the monetary policy of the European Central Bank next year to be beyond its reach and it will be left with only fiscal policies to fight eventual inflationary pressures.

“Thanks to the euro, the Slovak currency, compared to the currencies of neighbouring countries, has significantly strengthened, which has increased wage expenses for foreign investors in Slovakia,” Ďurana said. “The government should compensate for this negative effect by cutting taxes and payroll taxes.”

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE SLOVACK SPECTADOR’

Posted in CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCE, ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EURO, EUROPE, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL, NATIONAL WORK FORCES, ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD), RECESSION, SLOVAKIA, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, THE WORK MARKET, THE WORKERS | Leave a Comment »

MERKEL WARNS 2009 WILL BE ‘YEAR OF BAD NEWS’ FOR ECONOMY (Germany)

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on November 22, 2008

November 23, 2008 – 12:28AM

Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that 2009 will be “a year of bad news” for the economy, while a ANGELA MERKELGerman regional bank announced it had secured Saturday up to 30 billion euros in state loan guarantees.

“We must expect that next year will be a year of bad news, at least in the first months,” Merkel was quoted as saying in an interview to be published in the Welt am Sonntag newspaper on Sunday.

She said it was harder than before to predict the progress of the international and German economic situations.

“We have stabilised the financial markets thanks to a series of measures for the banks, but confidence still has to be found again and the interbanking market must become functional again,” Merkel said.

Berlin’s Financial Markets Stabilisation Fund offers up to 400 billion euros in guarantees to get the interbank lending market functioning again, and up to 80 billion euros in direct cash infusions to bolster banks’ balance sheets.

Merkel’s comments came as HSH Nordbank announced it had obtained up to 30 billion euros (38.5 billion US dollars) in loan guarantees, the largest chunk yet allocated from the special fund which was set up last month.

Based in the port of Hamburg and the state of Schleswig-Holstein, the regional public bank had requested government aid earlier this month.

“We are working on a series of concrete measures that will allow us to advance the future strategy of HSH Nordbank,” interim chief executive officer Dirk Jens Nonnenmacher said after the deal was agreed late Friday. ANGELA MERKEL

Shareholders will “ensure that the bank benefits from equity accordingly,” the bank said in a statement, adding that it had “different tools” at its disposal, with the elimination of assets a top target.

The board of directors and shareholders will meet in the coming weeks to discuss their options, the statement said.

The former head of Nordbank, Hans Berger, resigned on November 10 due to the financial crisis.

Announcing its plans on November 3 to seek state loan guarantees, the bank said it had recorded a net loss of 360 million euros in the third quarter of 2008.

It also wrote down the value of its assets by around one billion euros in the same period owing to the bankruptcy of US investment bank Lehman Brothers and financial turmoil in Iceland.

Nordbank’s announcement came after Germany’s biggest state-owned regional bank, Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg (LBBW), said Friday it may seek between 10 billion and 15 billion euros in loan guarantees from the government.

LBBW also said its owners – the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, the city of Stuttgart and local savings banks – would provide five billion euros (6.3 billion US dollars) in fresh capital. ANGELA MERKEL - caricature by Paddy

Regional bank BayernLB was the first one to tap into the rescue package, getting a 5.4 billion euro capital injection from the government and one billion more euros from its regional shareholders.

Hypo Real Estate, Germany’s biggest financial crisis casualty to date, said on Friday it has been given more help from Berlin with 20 billion euros (25 billion US dollars) in loan guarantees.

© 2008 AFP

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE AGE’ (Australia)

Posted in BANKING SYSTEM - USA, BANKING SYSTEMS, BANKRUPTCIES - USA, CENTRAL BANKS, CURRENCIES, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EURO, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, HOUSING CRISIS - USA, INTERNATIONAL, RECESSION, STOCK MARKETS, USA | Leave a Comment »

EL DÓLAR PIERDE SU ATRACTIVO – La debilidad del billete verde convierte al euro en la moneda favorita de modelos, deportistas y altos ejecutivos a nivel internacional, que ya quieren cobrar sus honorarios en divisa europea.

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on November 21, 2008

Domingo, 11 de Noviembre de 2007, número 394

por María Canales

El dólar está de capa caída. Desde hace un tiempo, los fajos de billetes verdes están dejando de acumularse en las cajas fuertes. Su valor ya no es el que era. Incluso los grandes bancos centrales del mundo, como el de China, han empezado a cambiar parte de sus reservas de dólares por euros. La divisa, considerada por muchos años una de las más fuertes en los mercados internacionales y un valor refugio, ha visto cómo el euro le ha superado por mucho en los últimos años. Mientras que en julio de 2002, las cotizaciones de la moneda europea y la estadounidense estaban igualadas, el viernes, un euro se pagaba al récord histórico de 1,46 dólares.

Poco a poco, y según los expertos, el euro se está convirtiendo en la moneda favorita no sólo de los inversores, sino también de los ejecutivos, de los deportistas de élite, de los actores y de las modelos a nivel internacional, que ven que es más rentable cobrar en moneda europea.

Así lo manifestaron la semana pasada fuentes cercanas a la modelo brasileña Gisel Bündchen, la mejor pagada del mundo, con unas ganancias de 30 millones de euros (20,5 millones de euros) hasta julio de 2007. Según el semanario brasileño Veja, Bündchen habría pedido a la estadounidense Procter&Gamble cobrar sus honorarios en euros por ser la imagen de su filial de productos para el cabello Pantene. Y lo mismo habría exigido a los italianos Dolce&Gabana por promocionar su perfume.

La supermodelo no es la única que vela por hacer caja en euros. Según el departamento de prensa de la PGA (Asociación Profesional de Golf), en los últimos dos años ha aumentado en un 30% el número de golfistas estadounidenses, australianos y latinoamericanos que participan en el circuito europeo. Jugadores famosos como el estadounidense Scott Verplank -estuvo entre los 20 primeros del mundo- han pasado de jugar de manera permanente uno o dos torneos en Europa en una temporada, a siete. Se gana más dinero.

La Asociación de Tenistas Profesionales (ATP) trata desde hace años de proteger tanto a los jugadores como a los torneos ante las fluctuaciones de las divisas poniendo premios de similar valor, según Jorge Salked, agente del jugador español Tommy Robredo. «Hay que recordar que hace unos años la cosa estaba al revés, el dólar valía mucho más». Los grandes torneos asiáticos pagan en dólares, y algunos como el de Dubai -el que más reparte en premios, 1,4 millones de dólares, después de los cuatro Grand Slam y los nueve Masters Series-, se quedan cortos al convertir los cheques a los ganadores en euros. Al cambio, Dubai reparte 976.000 euros, sólo 300.000 más que el Conde de Godó en Barcelona.

Al futbolista David Beckham no le importa cobrar billetes verdes, aunque cuando firmó el contrato para jugar en el equipo de Los Angeles Galaxi el verano pasado exigió que se le pagara en dólares la misma cantidad que cobraba en el Real Madrid en euros (cerca de ocho millones netos).

Por puro «sentido común», la subida del euro tendrá también su efecto en el sueldo de los altos ejecutivos, según los expertos. «No cabe duda de que si esto se mantiene será algo que se demande por parte de los directivos, sobre todo de nueva contratación. Los expatriados, los embajadores, etcétera serán los primeros en pedir sus sueldos en moneda europea cuando sus puestos estén fuera de la zona euro», asegura Begoña Benito, socia directora general de la consultora Watson Wyatt. Según Benito, será un tema en el que ganen las dos partes, por convertirse en un incentivo de compensación.

La caída del dólar está afectando también a los resultados de empresas. El viernes, Repsol YPF anunció que su beneficio neto de 2.448 millones de euros en los nueve primeros meses del año había caído un 7,7% respecto al mismo periodo de 2006, debido en parte a la depreciación del dólar frente al euro. Por su parte, el consorcio aeronáutico EADS apuntó que su facturación registrará una leve reducción al cierre del ejercicio en comparación con 2006.

¿Cotizará el barril de brent algún día en euros?

En los últimos días, la cotización del euro frente al dólar y la del crudo han batido nuevos récords. Mientras que la divisa europea alcanzó los 1,47 dólares, el barril de Brent rebasaba los 95 dólares y se acerca peligrosamente a la cifra psicológica de los 100 dólares. Sin embargo, el propio Banco Central Europeo reconocía esta semana que un euro tan fuerte suavizaba la subida del crudo.

En los últimos cinco años, el dólar se ha devaluado más de un 30% con respecto al euro. Y el precio del petróleo ha pasado de los 22,6 dólares de noviembre de 2002 a los 95 actuales. Devaluando este precio un 30% resultaría el equivalente a 66,5 dólares de principios de 2006, por lo que la gran parte de esta subida, según los expertos, sería debida a la pérdida de valor del dólar contra el euro y no a problemas de suministro.

La posibilidad de que el petróleo cotice en euros en lugar de en la moneda estadounidense es algo que viene de largo y que muchos países de la OPEP llevan tiempo pidiendo. De hecho, Irán ya vende crudo en euros a China.

Sin embargo, esta iniciativa, de momento, es bastante inalcanzable, según los analistas. «Pese a la presión política para cambiar la referencia del crudo a otra moneda, el tema no es tan fácil. Además de que el coste sería enorme, se da la circustancia de que la profundidad del mercado en dólares es muy superior al mercado en euros», afirma José Luis Martínez, estratega de Citigroup. «Una cosa es que la moneda se aprecie y otra distinta es que la moneda siga siendo fuerte. El dólar continúa siendo una moneda fuerte en términos de intercambio. La gente va todavía a Oriente Medio con dólares, no con euros. Tiene aún valor como moneda refugio, como moneda de reserva, de intercambio. Además, la oferta de dólares tiene entre otras cosas razón de ser en la fuerte demanda de activos internacionales de la economía americana. Es decir, consumen muchos productos asiáticos y crudo, por lo que hay una correspondencia entre la oferta y la demanda de dólares», asegura Martínez.

El experto cree que hoy no hay un mercado lo suficientemente profundo que sustituya al dólar.

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PUBLISHED BY ‘NUEVA ECONOMIA’ (Spain)

Posted in BANKING SYSTEM - USA, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCE, COMMODITIES MARKET, CURRENCIES, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, ENERGY, EURO, EUROPE, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, FINANCIAL CRISIS - USA - 2008/2009, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FOREIGN POLICIES, HOUSING CRISIS - USA, INDUSTRIES, INTERNATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, PETROL, RECESSION, THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS, TRADE DEFICIT - USA, USA | Leave a Comment »

POUND SINKS TO RECORD LOW AGAINST THE EURO – First property. Then shares. Now sterling is slumping. Sean O’Grady explains what the decline means for us

Posted by Gilmour Poincaree on November 14, 2008

Friday, 14 November 2008

In July, £1 would still buy $2; lower than its recent record of $2.11 set last November, but healthy THE POUND - Getty Imagesenough for shopping trips to New York to make sense. Yesterday, sterling was trading at about $1.48, a six-year low. Macy’s and Sachs of Fifth Avenue may soon notice a sharp decline in the number of British accents at the tills.

Our currency has also been bouncing along the bottom against the euro, which is now worth about 84p, its highest since the single currency was launched in 1999.

Suddenly the idea of parity – £1 = €1 – hoves into view. Broadly speaking, sterling has had a more violent battering in recent months than it endured after it famously fell out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism on “Black Wednesday”, 16 September 1992. The pound has fallen 25 per cent against the dollar and 15 per cent versus the euro this year. It has, you might say, had a bit of a pounding.

The reasons for sterling’s weakness are not difficult to see. To some extent, it is simply an adjustment to the way the pound has been overvalued for years: its fair value is about $1.50, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

What’s more, the UK is evidently headed for recession and the Bank of England is predicted to cut interest rates to historically low levels, maybe even below 1 per cent over the course of next year – the lowest level since the Bank was granted its charter in 1694. Such meagre prospective rewards for investors and the general belief that sterling assets have further to fall has prompted a sharp sell-off in the currency.

Both the Governor of the Bank, Mervyn King, and the Chancellor of the Exchequer admitted on Wednesday that the country was facing a sharp, if short, recession. Few independent economists believe the UK will recover quite as quickly as the authorities forecast – or that this country is well placed to cope with the downturn. The IMF says that the UK’s will be the most marked contraction in output – down 1.3 per cent – among the major advanced economies. Unemployment stands at 1.8 million, and will almost certainly climb to two million by Christmas and three million by 2010.

Yesterday, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, the engine of the UK’s largest market, the eurozone, confirmed it had entered its worst recession in 12 years or more. Investors are also becoming alarmed by the size of the British Government’s budget deficit, predicted by the Chancellor to top £90m before long. The prospect of a large quantity of UK government securities being issued to pay for the shortfall and various bank rescues has raised concerns about the way the economy is being run and longer term worries about inflation and growth.

There is also a positive dollar story. One of the consequences of the recent financial turmoil was a flight to safety, with short-term (one week, say, or one month) US Treasury securities, the favoured haven of international capital, with the reassurance of the US government behind them; the Swiss franc was another notable beneficiary of this trend. Sterling has not enjoyed that same prestige. The Australian dollar has also languished unloved, a victim of the fall in commodity prices and the slowing Chinese economy.

Should the depreciation of sterling turn into a rout, we may even see the current policy of aggressive cuts in interest rates by the Bank of England suspended, if not reversed. For the moment, the Bank seems content to watch sterling fall. Although economic theory teaches that a weak pound could lead to inflation, the very poor state of the domestic demand limits the scope of manufacturers and others to pass on price increases in the shops.

Nor has the pound declined by enough to transform our balance of trade. Export orders remain weak, despite the low level of sterling, because demand in Britain’s main markets – the rest of Europe, North America, Japan and China – remains so feeble. It will, in other words, need an even more savage discounting of the dollar/euro/yen prices of Scotch whisky, Range Rovers and Richard Rogers’ buildings to stimulate demand for them and generate more foreign exchange earnings.

However, the Bank of England has pledged to act if sterling’s fall becomes uncontrollable. A pause in the Bank’s policy of slashing interest rates would have a depressing impact on the wider economy – with house prices falling further, consumer confidence staying low and the credit crunch again restricting the supply of credit for businesses and consumers.

Against a basket of currencies weighted according to the UK’ s trade, sterling is down about 20 per cent on this time last year, a “pretty hefty” depreciation, in the words of the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy, Charles Bean.

It is one of the more severe of the many bouts of weakness the pound has suffered since the Second World War.

It may be many years before a shopping trip to Manhattan or a Swiss skiing break seems quite the bargain it used to be.

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PUBLISHED BY ‘THE INDEPENDENT’ (UK)

Posted in CENTRAL BANKS, CURRENCIES, DOLLAR (USA), ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE, ECONOMY, EURO, FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009, INTERNATIONAL, POUND (Britain) | Leave a Comment »